eurosong:

Good evening, folks, and welcome to today’s statistical map, where today we’ll be taking a quick look at semi finals over the past 5 years and seeing what the average position each country got as a prelude to the semi-finals next week where it is quite possible that some impeccable qualification records may end up getting a little sullied. We added together five year’s worth of positions and divided them by number of performances in the semis – and are left with an array of average positions from 2.0 (in the top 3 for every performance in the semis) to 14.0 (never having qualified in five years).

We can divide all ESC countries that have taken part in the past 5 years into one of seven categories:

The untouchables – There’s nary a doubt of these countries qualifying, and pre-show chatter tends to be more about whether they’ll win the semi rather than whether they’ll make it through. Only four countries have ended up on an average position of fourth in the semis over the past 5 years – Australia (3.5) who, despite having only taken part in the semis for two years, seem like a qualifying lock; Ukraine (3.3) who’ve always come top 3 in their SF performances, Russia (2.5) whose only middling performance, 6th in 2014, contrasts against two semi wins and one runner-up position, and Sweden (2), who’ve always come top 3 in this time. There’s a lot of chat about Russia dropping out of this supergroup common framework this year with a bad performance, but history is in their favour.

The A Minus Team – Here are 8 countries who, for the most part (with the exception of arriviste Bulgaria (6) joining the group thanks to two strong performances in 2016-7) , have seldom really threatened a win at the contest but have performed so solidly that we also generally expect them to qualify. The top of the A- team, Romania (4.5), Hungary (5) and Armenia (5.4) have always qualified in the past five years, with at least a couple of top 5 finishes. Azerbaijan (6.8), hanging tough for life at the bottom of this grouping, have always qualified as well but have done so by a slim margin on more than one occasion. In between them are countries who’ve generally enjoyed a purple patch at the contest – Belgium, Netherlands, Norway – with only one surprise NQ amidst four generally strong qualifications.

Sluggers and Rollercoaster Riders – These are the countries who’ve attained an average position of 7th to 9th. With the exception of Portugal (8.7) who got bumped up into this category by virtue of their win, countries in this category can be split roughly between sluggers like Poland (7.7) and Cyprus (8.5), who’ve generally qualified but not with such a high placing, and rollercoaster riders like Belarus (9), Israel (8.2) or Malta (8.6) who’ve mixed 3 decent results with 2 non-qualifiations.

Keep reading